As we’re slowly dragging ourselves into a new work year it feels like a good time for me to explore the potential for 2019 and ask you (via poll) what your own outlook for the coming year in UK fenestration is.
A tale of two years
I see this year as being very split. I will in a future post highlight my top 5 risks to the industry this year, so I won’t delve too deep into specific topics in this post. But I do think that we’re going to see a very rocky start to the year.
In very much the same way we saw a slowing down of business activity in the run up to the 2016 referendum and the 2017 General Election, I firmly see the same thing happening again as we approach March 29th and Brexit day. I think a lot of home owners are going to be holding tight on their big ticket purchases to make sure that the world hasn’t caved in when they wake up on March 30th.
I think January will be pretty good for the industry as pent up demand over the Christmas period will be released and become orders for installers. However, I think that will all change as the media machine gears up into February as the country prepares for whatever might happen in March. You can be guaranteed that it’s all that will be on the news channels, and you can be guaranteed that it will force some home owners to put off any big purchasing decisions, like new windows and doors, for a while longer yet.
But, I do believe, as with the second half of 2016 and 2017, that once March is out of the way and life in this country continues to function, we could actually see a big rebound. Major national events tend to have a dampening effect on sales in our industry, with people sitting on decisions until it’s all over. Then, when the dust clears and things return to normal, the build up of home owner purchasing is unleashed.
From April to around July I think we could see a few really hectic months. I do not believe that the chaos many predict Brexit will bring will actually materialise. I think the media will hype everyone up, as they do, and then most of us will come to realise, as they do, that daily life will continue.
So it could be a really up and down few months. August will be quiet as normal as people disappear on holiday, then we can expect the usual silly season starting in September, ending in November, with December 2019 being quiet as normal. All the excitement could happen in the first 6 months of this year.
Overall, I think we could eek out a bit of growth by the end of the year. But I want to know what you think. Here comes the poll…
Your predictions for 2019
Below is a poll with 5 options which I feel could best describe our chances for the coming year. Just pick which option suits your own outlook and predictions for the industry and you’re golden. All being well the poll will get enough votes to draw an accurate conclusion in a few weeks time where I’ll report back on the results and what the industry thinks is in store for us this year.
I also want to hear from you in the comments section below. Is Brexit going to be all hype and no event? Is it going to be a total disaster? Is the global economy a bigger problem that we need to worry about? Please leave your thoughts and opinions via the section below and lets get the debate going.
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