We have been talking about Brexit for more than three years now. Its been a long three years, which has felt much longer than that. We’ve had as much political turmoil in those three years than you would expect in three decades. Its fair to say we probably all have a politics hangover by now.
But as the saying goes, hair of the dog makes it all better, and that particular hair of the dog might well be a General Election in either late November or early December. Thats right, we could still be talking about Brexit and UK poltics even as we’re prepping for Christmas dinner. You can’t get much more festive than that. Not.
As things stand right now, an election looks very likely. If a deal cannot be done in time, and that time window is incredibly tight now, then Boris looks like he’s going to have to ask for an extension to Article 50, which the EU will give, but they have said would only be granted in the case of a new referendum or General Election. Well a second referendum still doesn’t look like its got enough support in Parliament, but a GE might. So a GE it will have to be.
That makes a General Election inevitable. Unless, like I said, Boris can pull off a political shock equivalent to Bradford City beating Chelsea 4-2 at Stamford Bridge in 2015.
For an odd silver lining, an election at this time of year might not be that bad for the window and door industry. Usually these things take place in the summer, the busy period for fenestration. However, in late November or early December, business activity really starts to drop off as home owners think more about Christmas presents than new windows. It could mean we have a new Government by Christmas, just. Who knows what kind of Government we would have.
Naturally, politics is an issue that not only affects our industry but a subject that a great many of us take a personal interest in. So, in true DGB style, I am running a poll to try and find out the voting intentions of the fenestration industry. But unlike my Twitter polls which last a week, this one is going to run until just before the end of the anticipated General Election.
Below is a poll with the main contenders, please take a moment to register your vote before you move on:
If you believe the opinion polls, and we now take these with a heap of salt, Boris Johnson and the Conservatives have a healthy lead of Jeremy Corbyn and Labour. So much so most polls give him a double-digit majority in Parliament should an election be held right now. It might go some way to explain Labour’s hesitation in calling for a GE and hiding behind the “no to no-deal” defence.
The truth is, if we do have a GE, those polls may well end up closer again than at the start, so I’d put another hung Parliament as the most likely outcome with the Tories with the most seats again. This would put is back right in the same jammed position we have now, with no majority and little to nothing being able to be passed. When it comes to solving Brexit, this isn’t going to help matters.
If the Tories did win a majority, the size of it would still matter. A small majority would still likely make it hard to pass Brexit legislation which will always remain divsive. A bigger one and we might be able to return to some level of normality in which the governing party is able to make a pass legislation. We can all but dream.
There then remains the chance that Labour does a bit better than polls suggest, and could form some sort of pact with the Lib Dems and others. That would be a highly combustible scenario and one which looks a lot less likely at this time.
Despite all that has happened since he took office, Boris has remained popular, and leads comfortably in opinion polls when people are asked who they would prefer as PM.
I’ll look into who would be better for fenestration in a later post, but for now, I simply wish to know the voting intentions of the industry. Please take a moment to vote and please feel free to pass this article around your offices to your staff for a greater participation level!
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