Are We About To Turn A Corner?

I don’t want to jinx anything by saying this out loud—touch wood, cross fingers, all that—but it does feel, just slightly, like we might be approaching a turning point. Not a dramatic transformation, not a sudden upswing, but maybe—just maybe—the start of something a bit steadier.

Signs of Stabilisation

Let me be clear: this isn’t a prediction that the sector is about to boom or that all our problems are magically behind us. They aren’t. There’s still plenty of uncertainty out there, and we’re far from being out of the woods. But there are small, meaningful signs that something resembling stability might be creeping back in. And that’s worth talking about.

The biggest indicator? Silence. Specifically, the silence around major corporate collapses. Over the last 18 to 24 months, it felt like we couldn’t go a week without hearing about another high-profile business going under. One after another, companies were folding, announcing layoffs, filing for bankruptcy—it was a grim rhythm we all got uncomfortably used to.

But recently? It’s been quiet. For the past couple of months, we’ve had a bit of a reprieve. No big bankruptcies. No dramatic industry exits. I don’t want to tempt fate by celebrating too soon, but each week that passes without a major headline like that gives a little more weight to the idea that maybe the bleeding has slowed. Maybe the worst is behind us.

A Brighter Macro Picture—For Now

Adding a bit more weight to the cautious optimism, we had some unexpected good news from the UK economy in Q1. The UK posted stronger-than-expected growth at 0.7%, and—perhaps more importantly—GDP per head rose by 0.5%. That figure is often a better reflection of how people are really doing, economically speaking. Remarkably, this made the UK the fastest-growing economy in the G7 for that period.

Now, I know as well as anyone that headlines don’t always tell the whole story, and one quarter doesn’t make a trend. In fact, some economists are already warning that Q2 is showing signs of cooling off. But still—after so many months (years, even) of relentlessly negative headlines, it feels good to see something a little more hopeful splashed across the news. And let’s not underestimate the psychological impact of that. Consumer confidence is often driven as much by perception as by reality. If the headlines start to shift, even slightly, that could help bring a little more energy back into the market.

A Positive Shift in the Sector

Within our own sector, there’s been another interesting signal: the recent flurry of aluminium acquisitions. What caught my eye wasn’t just the number of deals, but who was making them. Many of these acquisitions were carried out by companies outside the aluminium space—outsiders making strategic moves into the market. That, to me, says confidence. It suggests that others are seeing value and opportunity where, not long ago, there might have only been risk.

This kind of outside investment can often be a leading indicator of a shift in sentiment. When new players start entering a market, it’s because they believe it has growth potential, not just survival potential. It doesn’t mean a boom is imminent, but it does suggest we’re turning a corner—from defence to cautious optimism.

Inflation: A New Headwind?

However, just as we start to feel a sense of stability, today’s inflation figures serve as a stark reminder that challenges remain. The UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose to 3.5% in April, up from 2.6% in March, marking the highest rate since early 2024. This unexpected surge was driven by increased energy bills, water charges, council tax, and transport costs, including a notable 27.5% rise in airfares during the Easter period .

Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, also climbed to 3.8%, while services inflation reached 5.4%, indicating that underlying price pressures are more persistent than anticipated. These developments have led economists to question the likelihood of imminent interest rate cuts by the Bank of England, with some suggesting that any policy easing may be delayed until later in the year .

For businesses and consumers alike, higher inflation translates to increased costs and reduced purchasing power. Households may find their budgets stretched thinner, potentially dampening consumer spending—a critical driver of economic growth. For our sector, this could mean a more cautious approach to investment and expansion in the near term.

Final Thoughts

So no, I’m not calling it a recovery just yet. But I do think it’s fair to say we’re seeing the early signs of stability returning. There’s a long way to go, and nothing is guaranteed—but after the volatility of the last couple of years, even a bit of calm is welcome.

That said, the recent uptick in inflation is a reminder that the path forward may still be uneven. It’s essential to remain vigilant and adaptable, ready to navigate the challenges that come our way.

Let’s hope we can build on the stability we’ve started to see, while keeping a close eye on the economic indicators that could influence our journey ahead.